The Art of Forecasting
Like Duolingo, but for The Art of Forecasting. Tomo turns the whole topic into a game you play five minutes a day, until it actually sticks.
For the part of you with thirty open tabs that never became anything.
Free forever · No credit card · iPhone & Android
Key ideas in The Art of Forecasting
- The limitation of binary thinking in forecasting
- The value of numerical precision over vague language
- 0% and 100% are rarely used because they represent impossible certainty
- The 0-100 scale allows for fine-tuned adjustments as new information arrives
- A 70% prediction means the 'wrong' outcome is expected to happen 3 out of 10 times
- The quality of a prediction is based on the logic used at the time, not just the final result
- Evaluating prediction quality based on probability, not just the final result
- Naming your doubt helps you spot what specific news would change your mind
- Using the 0-100 scale to express confidence levels
- Predictions should be updated immediately when 'needle-moving' information appears
- Identifying information that changes a forecast
- The Inside View focuses on unique personal strengths and specific plans
- The base rate provides a statistical anchor for a prediction
- Focusing on 'why this time is different' often leads to over-optimism
- Historical averages are more reliable than personal intuition
- A reference class must be broad enough to have data but specific enough to be relevant
You've tried the other tabs
Thirty open tabs. Four facts you actually kept.
You watched. You nodded. By Sunday it was gone.
One answer, then back to scrolling.
Eight weeks. You meant to finish. You didn't.
Tomo gives The Art of Forecasting the Duolingo treatment: levels, streaks, and quick quizzes that test what you just learned. That game loop is what the tabs above never had, so it's the one you actually finish.
Here's what playing it feels like
A real question from this course. Take your best guess.
Why is saying a project 'might' finish on time often a problem for a team?
Get it right to open this lesson and 11 more in the app.
Where The Art of Forecasting takes you
Stop guessing and start predicting. Learn the systematic habits of 'superforecasters' to turn uncertainty into calculated probability.
- 1
The Forecaster's Mindset
- Thinking in Percentages
- The Power of the Outside View
- 2
Refining the Prediction
- Updating on New Information
- Measuring Your Accuracy
2 sections · 4 units · 12 levels. Built to play, not to enroll.
You pick the voice
The Art of Forecasting is taught in the The Bestie style: your friend who just gets it. Want a different feel? In the app you can spin up the same topic in any of Tomo's teaching styles. Same facts, totally different vibe.
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Start The Art of Forecasting today.
Download Tomo, search The Art of Forecasting, and play your first lesson in under a minute.